Stock Market Personal Predictions

Posted 5/11/08  2:05 am EST

DOW –  Well, weakness wins out. No real up last week and many odd signals. Lots of short covering on down days. Market has a major mixed message from activity mid-March through mid-April. It's my belief that the market has to do what is least expected, so.... it will be down Monday moving close to 12, 600. Then it will hang around for a bit - maybe through Tuesday and possibly even Wednesday. Then in will take off toward 13,500 (this is the unexpected part). How far it gets is a huge question. Looking at the 10 year charts, it will either go through 17,000 or head back to 11,000 during the next twelve months. I believe it needs to take a run prior to the summer doldrums (or is the unexpected that there will be no summer doldrums). Anyway, licking my wounds and feeling like I've got a tiger by the tail and can't let go.

Companies are sound. Most flush with cash and opportunity. Markets are liquid. The focus on the consumer hangover is what is creating this problem. The companies that will follow the hangover down are the companies that sell hype (liquid diets at $150 a day for the stars) to the average consumer. Quality will be back in and we are going away from bigger and faster is better. Why? Cause the average consumer will have less money to burn for awhile.

Posted 5/7/08  9:30 am EST

DOW –  Lots of double messages in the market. Which means individual stocks will be fickle. Picked up lots of stop losses yesterday on the opening. Look for Dow up today and tomorrow. Likely to struggle at 13,100 today and cross through with strength tomorrow. Profit taking on Friday..

Posted 4/3/08  11.16 am EST

DOW –  Seems I need to take advantage of hyper moves - just a reminder that it would've been better to unload on first rise ending on 3/25/08. I see the Dow closing strong today after a week opening and lots of second guessing. Then on Monday, a strong opening continuing through most of Tuesday. Then it's back to the doldrums for a few days. If you're holding, trend is up for awhile - maybe a month or 6 weeks - with a crescendo at the end and then a slide down.

Posted 3/27/08  6:36 pm EST

DOW –  Would've done well to unload rather than hold. Interesting position. Tomorrow being Friday, it's unlikely to be an up day. Monday on the other hand will pick a direction. It's at a point of support - not strong though. Is it going to 11,000 or will it make a strong run up? I believe it will run up hard next week through Thursday and then collapse to hit 11, 000.

Posted 3/24/08  1:01 pm EST

DOW –  Strong start more good news. Pattern has been 'this is the high and it will drop from here', which is why I believe it will break this pattern. I am holding positions through today. Stall is because of those traders selling positions from last week. Market will stall here, and maybe even back off tomorrow slightly and head to 12, 850 either by end of the day Tuesday or Wednesday.

Posted 3/22/08  1:02 pm EST

DOW – The Dow followed the predictable pattern (well, at least predicable for me) and is now near a double top at 12,400. Monday will be a hesitant day with the fear of a long drop. Unlikely to happen at this point. Much more likely it will explode up to 12,600, hesitate, and then travel to the 13,500 mark rapidly over the next two weeks (plus). That is the next real point of resistance, and since I believe the market needs to hit 11,000 that is the likely turn around point. The financials will be over exuberant on this climb and if you have positions from Monday, you will be doing well: You might sell them or a portion on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning as a hedge at the 12,600 mark. Let me know if you're enjoying these posts, jhansler@oxfordco.com.

Posted 3/14/08  8:09 pm EST

DOW – The Dow will end up for the coming week. The question is what positions will join it? I'd say down first couple of hours on Monday and then end positive with a strong Tuesday and Thursday and Friday with Wednesday maybe even down, more likely just weak.

Posted 3/4/08  1:37 pm EST

DOW – The news is with this pattern, the Dow could easily fall to 11, 000 (more likely 11,500). There might be an upswing prior to summer. Chancy...and this summer is likely to be summer of waiting. 

Posted 3/3/08  5:49 pm EST

DOW – Okay so it was down .06%. Buy? Well, maybe. Wouldn't be a bad place to take up 1/4 to 1/3 of a regular buy in the financials. (This means if you would normally pick up 1000 shares instead get 250 - 330 shares). Most of the afternoon was on weak volume, the trend is currently down, and the larger volumes are at the sell offs. Institutions getting out. (Which means they have to get back in at some point. But where?). Dow is likely to go up next two days with very little carrying power. This has been the problem. Dow goes up and individual stock plays don't. Put in some scheduled buys on those you like and let them sit for a bit is one strategy that might work. 

Posted 2/29/08  9:48 pm EST

DOW – When you hammer and hammer away and it won't go down further, it tells you something. Buy. Monday morning open. Down - maybe another .05 %. Then up. How strong? How long? Short up then more down. Maybe ? and unlikely. "Beware the Ides of March!" What does this mean? Absolutely nothing. It just sounds ominous.

Posted 2/29/08  11:17 am EST

DOW – Well doesn't this suck. Positions purchased 30 days ago which had 25% returns are now upside down. Down 1000 possibly. Even down 1500 is possible with this pattern! This one is even taking the traders with them and that's not good (that's why the fast fall - traders have to get out and take their losses when they call it wrong and that tanks a market). The question becomes 'who will step in to stop the fall and can you still make money on it?' 12200 some support. Hitting it too fast and it won't even hiccup. Smart action. Buy 1/4 to 1/2 of what you were thinking. If it rebounds, you make a quick profit, if it doesn't, you're in a position to buy again at the lower mark.

Posted 2/28/08  11:00 am EST

DOW – Currently down. Need to make room to make money today. It will close up today if it keeps to pattern. 

Posted 2/25/08  4:50  pm EST

DOW – Interesting day. A few key stocks are moving the market. Smaller shares are lagging. Lots of opportunities for playing the spread. Greed is good and will drive the market past resistance. This isn't a 'kiss and tell' market". No, this is a 'leave them at the alter' market. If you're not sure what I mean by that...email me. We'll see 13, 250 on this run.

Posted 2/24/08  1:50  pm EST

DOW – Madman is the answer. Who else would call an up market with all the bad news. "Greed is good", said Gordon Gekko. The rockier the market the more money the traders make. Follow the money for this is contrarian heaven. If you bought on the down, then ride this to somewhere around 12,750, there will be a sell opportunity there. I believe we'll get there quickly. Got to make people comfortable before you can pull the rug out from under them. How far will it fall? Maybe all the way back through Friday's close 12,381. Where to after that? Oh, stay tuned. BTW, if you're enjoying reading these, let me know.

Posted 2/20/08  2:34  am EST

DOW – Contrarian or Madman. Well, I guess the market will decide. Watch for selling most of the day and then for a 'can't figure it out' rally followed by ups at least through Friday mid-day. Could take us through resistance this time and if it does. Yahoo.

Posted 2/5/08  4:25  am EST

DOW – Great day to be buying. Bottom of the first hump. Finally, hit the 12,250 mark with a resounding thud. Will open lower and then rise tomorrow. Trend is now up. Next stop 15000 +. Resistance all along the way. Rocky ride so hang on. Major resistance at around 13, 600.

 

Posted 12/24/07  12:18  am EST

DOW – Major resistance at 13, 600. Likely to end weekly positive with a climb on Dec 26 and fairly good strength, into the second wave and will climb from here. 

ADEP – actually strong, next stop, 10, resistance at 8, cap around 14 

AEHR – major resistance at 8, likely to fall today to 5.6 

CVTX – weak, major resistance at 10, 10.25, need strong news to shift 

ELON – strong, next psychological resistance, 22, second wave, major resistance, between 25 – 30 

GERN – weak, next major resistance, trap door below 6, would guess it is at beginning of first wave up or second wave, guess is will shoot higher

GIGA – weak, next resistance 1.82, in a seesaw that will continue unless it breaks out with news, major resistance at 1.92 

Supertex – on first wave, above critical low, next resistance near 40, heavy resistance 

Xoma – on second wave up, strong technicals, should climb nicely, next major resistance around 6

Posted 12/1/07  11:35  am EST

 

Your interpretation of the wave is incorrect.

 

We are on the back side of the second wave and will be heading to a greater peak. We need another down, which I had initially thought would be 12,100 and now may be as high as 12,250 at which point the market will rise to well about 15,000.

 

Your analyst are one wave off.

 

Your email:

 

12/1/07 Yes, Virginia, to Santa Claus and Bear Markets

The bearish economic and financial news keeps flooding the media, yet hardly anyone wants to believe in the possibility of a bear market. Where is that fearless newspaper editor who wrote the letter to the little girl in 1897 that started, "Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus"? Why, he's been reincarnated here at Elliott Wave International, where we fervently proclaim that, "Yes, Virginia, there is such a thing as a bear market." Our analysts Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall are not afraid to look at a chart and see a bear market. Here's a sneak peek at their hot-off-the-presses December forecast:

"It's somewhat amusing to see all the headlines that say stocks entered a 'correction' on November 26 when the Dow reached a 10% decline from its October 11 high. The problem with this terminology is that it can be applied only in retrospect. Such designations are useless or possibly even harmful in determining a correct market stance. The implication of 'correction,' for instance, is that a long-term investor should remain invested through every 10% decline or at least until the market declines 20%, at which point it becomes a bear market that can fall further and should therefore have been avoided back near the peak."

You don't have to write a letter to the editor to get the answer to your questions about the upcoming bear market. All you have to do is subscribe to The Elliott Wave Financial

 

Posted 11/21/07  2:50 pm EST

 

DJIA will likely settle at 12,780 today and drop slightly on Friday, followed by a weak rise on Monday and further falling. It will find support at 12,100 during the next few weeks.

 

Nasdaq will likely hit 2495 dropping below the current low. It will remain neutral on Friday and on Monday will rise then fall throughout the week.   Final support will be in the 2375 range.

S&P500 will likely hit 1385 today. It will drop over the next few weeks to final support at 1245 range.

 

Posted 11/16/07 11 am EST:

 P.S.   Nasdaq is strongest of the markets and may buck the trend and any holdings on Nasdaq are the most likely to buck trend as well (being + versus -). The S&P500 is neutral to negative and the Dow is negative.